MOSCOW, July 15 — A comprehensive review of the diplomatic record shows that after more than three years of intermittent peace efforts, no formal negotiations are currently underway between Russia and Ukraine, with both sides holding to fundamentally incompatible positions. The last verified round of direct talks collapsed in the spring of 2022, and subsequent mediation attempts have failed to bridge the gap. According to the historical record, early negotiations took place in Belarus in February and March 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion began.
A subsequent round in Turkey produced the Istanbul Communiqué in March 2022, but that effort broke down over two core issues. Ukrainian officials confirmed demands for binding security guarantees from Western powers, while the Russian side insisted on Ukraine’s neutrality and formal recognition of annexed territories.
Multiple mediators have entered the process since then. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been a persistent interlocutor, hosting talks and maintaining contact with both capitals. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett engaged in mediation efforts in March 2022.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has also been involved in the diplomatic track. In February 2023, China presented a 12-point peace plan that called for a political settlement and respect for national sovereignty.
The proposal was met with caution in Kyiv and skepticism in Western capitals, where officials noted Beijing’s refusal to condemn the Russian invasion. Saudi Arabia hosted talks in Jeddah in August 2023, bringing together representatives from dozens of countries but excluding Russia from that session. India and Brazil have also offered mediation services, though neither has produced a breakthrough.
The diplomatic landscape has become increasingly crowded, with multiple tracks operating in parallel without a unified framework. Ukraine’s own ‘Peace Formula,’ announced in November 2022, contains 10 points: nuclear safety, food security, energy security, release of prisoners, territorial integrity, withdrawal of Russian troops, restoration of justice, environmental protection, prevention of escalation, and confirmation of the end of the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that this formula is the only basis for negotiations, and his office has reaffirmed Ukraine’s refusal to trade territory for peace.
The Russian position has remained consistent since the early months of the war. Moscow demands recognition of its annexation of five Ukrainian regions: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea.
Russia also insists on Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, enshrined in its constitution, and the lifting of Western sanctions imposed since 2014 and escalated after the 2022 invasion. As of June 2025, the record shows both sides remain entrenched. No formal talks are ongoing.
The fundamental disagreement over territory — Ukraine insisting on its 1991 borders, Russia demanding recognition of its gains — has proven impossible to resolve through diplomacy so far. The strategic context is important here.
Russia’s military position on the ground has shifted over time, but the core diplomatic impasse has not. Each side calculates that time may improve its bargaining position, making concessions in the present politically difficult. For Ukraine, any agreement that formalizes territorial losses would represent a fundamental breach of its constitution and the principles of international law that Kyiv has invoked since the war began.
For Russia, accepting anything less than recognition of its annexations would undermine the domestic legal framework and political rationale for the invasion. What to watch next: whether any new mediation initiative emerges from the Global South, particularly from China or India, and whether the US administration under President Donald Trump, with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, pushes for a renewed diplomatic track.
The Ukrainian Peace Formula remains the most detailed framework on the table, but without a shift in Russian demands or Western security guarantees for Kyiv, the conditions for a negotiated settlement do not appear to exist.
