How Abiy Ahmed’s Peace With Eritrea Earned Him the Nobel Prize
Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2018 after the dissolution of the EPRDF, according to the filing. He was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea, the record shows. His early reforms included releasing political prisoners and unbanning opposition groups, setting the stage for a diplomatic breakthrough with Asmara.
The Breakdown After the Tigray War and Eritrea’s Exclusion
Following the Pretoria Agreement that ended the Tigray War, Abiy began efforts in 2023 to consolidate regional militias into the ENDF, according to the filing. Eritrea had fought alongside Ethiopia against the TPLF from 2020 to 2022 but was not part of the peace deal that ended the war, which soured ties, sources familiar with the timeline note. Fano rebuffed requests to disarm and integrate into federal forces, instead attacking the ENDF and beginning the War in Amhara, the record shows.
Recent Accusations of Invasion and Counter-Claims of Aggression
Ethiopia accused Eritrea of an ‘all-out invasion’ in a message to the UN Security Council, claiming Eritrean troops advanced up to 60 kilometres into northern Tigray, according to Al Jazeera. Eritrea rejected Ethiopia’s claims, saying it is facing a ‘war of aggression’ from Ethiopia for more than three years, the report adds. Diplomatic ties have collapsed: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave, and Eritrea responded by severing ties, the filing confirms.
Military Comparisons: Ethiopia’s Size and Drone Advantage vs Eritrea’s Mobilisation and Terrain
In the Ethiopia vs Eritrea military balance, Ethiopia has 38 times the population and up to three times the troops of Eritrea, according to the analysis. Ethiopia first used armed drones at scale in the Tigray war of 2020 to 2022, with ACLED recording 102 federal drone strikes in Amhara alone since April 2023, the report states. In October, drones were turned on Eritrean troops inside Tigray, with ACLED recording strikes near Adigrat overnight into 8 October, the tracker notes. Eritrea has begun a nationwide mobilisation, and all final-year school students must study at the Sawa military camp, so almost every young Eritrean receives military training, the UN Special Rapporteur reported. SIPRI’s figure for Ethiopia’s defence budget fell from US$1.23 billion in 2023 to US$528 million in 2025, mainly because the birr was floated in 2024, the data shows. Eritrea is a black box: SIPRI last estimated its spending for 2003 at about 21% of the economy, and Asmara has published no defence budget since, the record indicates.
What the Renewed Conflict Means for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Stability
The stakes lie beside the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the analysis notes. The United States asked the UN Security Council to discuss the escalation, and closed consultations were scheduled for 13 October at its request, the report adds. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of plotting to seize its port of Assab, while Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of seeking to regain Red Sea access, according to Al Jazeera. The neighbours have a tumultuous history, as Eritrea won independence from Ethiopia in 1993 and they fought a border war for two years in 1998, the filing recalls. Relations improved slightly in 2018 when Abiy took power in Addis Ababa, but the current trajectory risks reversing those gains, sources familiar with the region suggest.
Abiy’s Nobel Recognition and the 2018 Peace Deal With Eritrea
Abiy Ahmed was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea, the record shows. The prize specifically cited his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, particularly his role in ending the two-decade stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea. His acceptance of the Eritrean peace proposal in mid-2018 led to the signing of a joint declaration in July 2018, restoring diplomatic ties and reopening borders, telephone services, and flights between the two countries.
The breakthrough followed Abiy’s visit to Asmara in July 2018, where he met Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and agreed to implement the 2002 Algiers Agreement, which had established the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission’s ruling on the disputed town of Badme. By accepting the commission’s decision that Badme belonged to Eritrea, Abiy fulfilled a long-standing condition for peace that previous Ethiopian governments had rejected. This move ended the state of war that had persisted since the 1998–2000 border conflict.
As part of the peace process, Abiy lifted the state of emergency, reopened embassies, and restored direct flights between Addis Ababa and Asmara. The reopening of the border allowed families separated by decades of conflict to reunite and revived trade routes that had been closed since 1998. These steps were widely praised internationally as a transformative moment for regional stability in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s Drone Strikes Target Eritrean Forces in Tigray
Ethiopian armed drones have been deployed against Eritrean troops operating inside Tigray, with ACLED recording strikes near Adigrat overnight into 8 October, according to the tracker. The Critical Threats Project linked a satellite image of a destroyed truck to that road, confirming the impact of the drone campaign. Eritrea has not published any information on its air force capabilities, and a UN arms embargo prevented it from importing weapons from 2009 to 2018, leaving its air-defence holdings undocumented. As a result, the extent to which Eritrea can shield its troops and ports from drone attacks remains unknown, though air power faces limitations in mountainous terrain where troops can take cover in dug-in positions.
Humanitarian Fallout and Civilian Displacement
As fighting intensifies along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, civilians in northern Tigray and southern Eritrea face mounting risks of displacement and limited access to aid, according to reports from Al Jazeera. Witnesses have described Eritrean troops being seen in Adigrat before Ethiopian drone strikes hit the area, raising concerns about civilian proximity to military targets. The United Nations has not yet issued a formal humanitarian appeal, but sources familiar with the region note that prior conflicts in the area have led to widespread food insecurity and disrupted healthcare services.
Ethiopia’s internal displacement crisis, already strained by the War in Amhara and lingering effects of the Tigray War, could worsen if cross-border shelling or drone strikes affect populated zones near the frontier. Eritrea’s nationwide mobilisation, which includes mandatory military training for final-year school students at the Sawa camp, may further restrict civilian movement and access to livelihoods in rural areas. Both governments have restricted diplomatic access, complicating efforts by international organisations to monitor conditions on the ground.
Historical patterns from the 1998–2000 border war show that prolonged conflict along the rugged frontier often results in long-term displacement, with families separated for decades due to closed borders and restricted movement. While the 2018 peace deal briefly allowed reunification and revived trade, the current breakdown threatens to reverse those gains, leaving border communities once again vulnerable to the humanitarian toll of renewed hostilities.
Sources
- Abiy Ahmed
- Ethiopia and Eritrea accuse one another of launching war
- Ethiopia vs Eritrea: Who Would Win a War?
Photo: Office of the Prime Minister – Ethiopia (Public domain)
